Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman picked up the phone Sunday and made a call that may have prevented a regional war. The de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia urged President Donald Trump to avoid turning the Iran crisis into what he warned would be a “wider conflict whose repercussions would affect regional and international security and stability.” It was not the first time regional leaders have intervened to de-escalate tensions between Washington and Tehran, but it may have been the most consequential. With American forces “all set to go” for what Trump described as a “massive attack” on Iran, MBS’s intervention bought time for diplomacy — and revealed the terrifying reality that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors face as they balance their security relationships with Washington against their vulnerability to Iranian retaliation.
The Saudi Press Agency reported that MBS “stressed the need to prioritize dialogue to reduce escalation and the importance of making every possible effort to achieve calm that paves the way for diplomatic solutions” in his conversation with Trump. The language was diplomatic, but the subtext was clear: a major American strike on Iran would trigger a response that could devastate the Gulf’s oil infrastructure and plunge the region into chaos. A person familiar with the call told Al Jazeera that MBS was specifically worried that “a major US strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil and gas facilities.” The crown prince has seen this movie before, and he knows how it ends.
Iran has already prepared a detailed blueprint for revenge. According to Iran’s state-run Tasnim news agency, Tehran has identified targets across the Middle East to strike if the United States proceeds with military action. The list reads like a who’s who of global energy production: the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia, which produces about five percent of the world’s oil supply; refining facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, which Houthi drones attacked during a previous round of hostilities; the Zakum oil field and Ruways refinery in the United Arab Emirates; the Burgan oil field in Kuwait; the Sitrah refinery in Bahrain; the Ras Laffan gas field in Qatar; and Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar gas fields. A senior Iranian security official quoted by Tasnim put it bluntly: “We have prepared a comprehensive plan to respond to any potential American recklessness.”
The Saudis have been here before. In 2019, drone and missile strikes — blamed on Iran but claimed by Houthi rebels in Yemen — temporarily knocked out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production at the Abqaiq facility. The attack exposed the vulnerability of Saudi infrastructure and demonstrated that even relatively inexpensive drone technology could inflict catastrophic damage on the kingdom’s economic lifeline. Two weeks ago, the Houthis declared a “maritime ban” on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, potentially blocking an oil shipping route that Saudi Arabia was relying upon to bypass Iran’s shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The message from Tehran and its proxies has been consistent: if Saudi Arabia supports American military action against Iran, Saudi oil will burn.
MBS’s intervention reflects hard lessons learned from Saudi Arabia’s disastrous military intervention in Yemen. Former U.S. defense official Dana Stroul told NDTV that “Saudi Arabia learned the hard way — after years of war — that military force alone was not sufficient to address the Houthi threat from Yemen.” The Saudi-led coalition’s campaign against the Houthis, which began in 2015, won Riyadh little except international condemnation over civilian casualties from airstrikes and a costly stalemate that drained Saudi resources. The crown prince has no desire to repeat that experience on a regional scale, particularly when the target would be Iran itself — a country with far greater military capabilities than the Houthis and a demonstrated willingness to use them.
The broader context of MBS’s call is the complex web of relationships that defines Middle Eastern geopolitics. Saudi Arabia and Iran are regional rivals competing for influence across the Arab world, but they are also neighbors who must coexist. The Abraham Accords normalized relations between Israel and several Gulf states, but they did not eliminate the fundamental reality that Gulf monarchies face a potentially existential threat from Iran and its proxies. When Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Saudi counterpart that “any hostile action by the U.S. or Israel” would “be met with a decisive and proportionate response from Iran’s powerful armed forces,” the implication was unmistakable: Saudi Arabia could be held responsible for American actions, regardless of whether Riyadh supported them.
Trump’s decision to hold off on strikes at MBS’s urging reveals the limits of American unilateralism in an interconnected world. The president has made clear that he would prefer a deal to war, but he has also made clear that he will not wait forever. “I said, ‘What would you rather do? Would you rather have us do this or not?’ They said, ‘We would much prefer a deal as opposed to an attack, because you don’t know where these attacks lead,’” Trump recounted of his conversation with MBS. The president’s willingness to listen to regional allies demonstrates a pragmatism that has been missing from American foreign policy for too long, but it also underscores the reality that even the world’s most powerful military cannot solve every problem with force.
What happens next depends on whether Iran’s leadership recognizes the opportunity that MBS has created for them. The Saudis have essentially offered to serve as intermediaries, using their influence with Washington to buy time for negotiations while warning Tehran that the alternative to diplomacy is catastrophe. It is a delicate balancing act that requires trust on all sides — trust that is in short supply after decades of hostility between Iran and its Gulf neighbors, and between Iran and the United States. But the alternative to diplomacy is a war that would devastate the global economy, destabilize the Middle East, and potentially draw in powers beyond the region.
MBS’s phone call may have prevented that outcome, at least for now. The question is whether it will be enough to bring Iran’s leaders to the negotiating table with serious intentions, or whether they will continue to gamble that they can outlast American resolve. The crown prince has placed a significant bet on diplomacy. The world is watching to see if it pays off.
Providence watches over the bold.
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